Pancreatic Cancer predicted to be the 4th biggest cancer killer in the UK in 2011
Predicting 1.3 million cancer deaths in Europe in 2011, research published today, using data from the World Health Organization, shows overall cancer deaths in Europe should fall by 7% in men and 6% in women compared with rates in 2007.
However it is predicted that by the end of 2011, pancreatic cancer will become the 4th biggest cancer killer in the UK
The research, using a new mathematical model for predicting cancer mortality, used data on cancer deaths in the European Union for the period 1970-2007 to calculate rates of death each year and to identify trends which they used to predict death rates for 2011. These figures were then compared to overall death rates by cancer type in 2007 in the EU (the EU was defined as the 27 member states as of January 2007), and also individual rates in six major EU countries: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
Published in the Annuls of Oncology, and led by Professor Carlo La Vecchia (MD) of the Department of Epidemiology at the Mario Negri Institute and the Faculty of Medicine, University of Milan (Italy), this research predicts that the falls in death rates already seen for stomach, colorectal, breast, womb, prostate and male lung cancers should continue.
However, the same is not true for pancreatic cancer with a 2% increase in deaths (male & female combined) predicted for 2011 in the UK. This rise may in part be down to later diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in the UK which itself is reflected in our lower 1-year survival rates compared to the rest of Europe (see graph below).
When looking at age-standardised rates* for pancreatic cancer across Europe as a whole, this new research found that the trend in mortality rate has stabilised. Despite this stabilisation trend, actual deaths are increasing due to our ageing population. In 2007 there were 7759 deaths from pancreatic cancer in the UK and the prediction for 2011 according to this study is 7951.
Click on graph to expand
The continuing decline in mortality rates for most other major cancers is likely to promote pancreatic cancer to the position of 4th commonest cause of cancer death in the UK by the end of 2011. It currently sits in 5th place.
Ali Stunt, Founder and CEO of Pancreatic Cancer Action commented, “ pancreatic cancer is moving in the wrong direction in the mortality league tables and highlights further the need for increased investment into the disease, which currently receives less than 2% of total research funding. Increased investment in other cancers has clearly paid dividends borne out by the corresponding reduction in their mortality rates shown by this and other research.”
“We need to act now to raise the profile of pancreatic cancer among the public, the medical profession and Government so patients are diagnosed earlier and so that investment is increased to allow pancreatic cancer to be better understood, better treated and for there to be better outcomes for patients.”
*Age-standardised mortality rate per 100,000 (world) population using EUROSTAT population data