Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the UK

Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Mortality Figures

Pancreatic Cancer is the 11th most common cancer in the UK1 Here we show pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality figures for 2015 and predictions to 2030.

27 people a day are newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the UK.

In 2015, 9,921 people were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the UK, an increase of 12% on 2012 when the number was 8,888.

The number of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the UK has been steadily rising.

In 2015, the number of deaths due to pancreatic cancer in the UK rose slightly (+3%) to 8,912 from 8,662 in 2012. 24 people a day (one person an hour) will die from pancreatic cancer in the UK.

Pancreatic cancer incidence 2015:

Pancreatic Cancer Incidence 2015 England2 Wales3 Scotland4 Northern Ireland5 UK
Males 4,175 238 402 146 4,961
Females 4,144 270 419 127 4,960
Persons 8,319 508 821 273 9,921
EASR* 16.5 16.6 16.1 14.7 16.0

Pancreatic cancer has the highest incidence to mortality ratio of almost any disease

Pancreatic Cancer Mortality 2015

Pancreatic Cancer Mortality 2015 England6 Wales Scotland7 Northern Ireland8 UK
 Males 3,773  215  353 116 4,457
Females 3,741 236  366 112 4,455
 Persons 7,514  451  749  228 8,912
 EASR*  9.1  14.5 15.3  15.1 13.5

* Age-standardised to the European population.

Why are the figures a few years old?

The  statistics on this website relate to the latest available on pancreatic cancer at the time of publication. Because the reporting system  for incidence varies with the cancer registries across the countries of the United Kingdom and for mortality published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there is usually a delay of approximately 18 months for the collation of incidence figures and of 12 months for the collation of mortality figures.

Incidence and survival of pancreatic cancer per age group:

While age is a significant risk factor for pancreatic cancer, nearly 40% of cases in England between 2009 & 2013  occurred in those under the age of 69:

graph showing pancreatic cancer diagnosis by age group in England between 2009 and 2013

While incidence is lower for those up to age 59, five-year survival is significantly better than for those over the age of 60 where survival drops off markedly:

Incidence by age group vs 5 yr survival

Source: Office for National Statistics Statistical Bulletin9

Future Predictions:

Using Population forecasts extracted from the “United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2012 revision”, GLOBOCAN 2012 data for cancer incidence and mortality worldwide has predicted that incidence of pancreatic cancer in the UK will increase to nearly 10,000 by 2020..

This is set to grow further by 2025, and by 2030 when nearly 12,000 cases per year are predicted:

Globoscan incidence predictions graph

Mortality rates are also set to rise from nearly 8,500 in 2012 to over 11,000 by 2030:

Globoscan mortality predictions graph

Reference: GLOBOCAN10

  1. CRUK the 20 most common cancers in the UK 2014 data are available to download online  statistics-for-common-cancers (accessed Jan 2018 

  2. ONS Cancer Registrations England 2015 

  3. Welsh Cancer Intelligence & Surveillance Unit 

  4. ISD Scotland Cancer Incidence in Scotland (2015 


  6. Deaths registered in England and Wales in 2015 by cause 

  7. ISD Scotland. 


  9. Cancer Survival in England patients diagnosed 2008 – 2012  followed up to 2013 Published April 2014  


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