The exact causes of pancreatic cancer are not known but it is thought that age, smoking, obesity and a family history of pancreatic cancer or other rare genetic conditions increase your risk.
The lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer in the UK is relatively low at 1 in 77 for men and 1 in 79 for women [1]
Rate* ratio of male to female pancreatic cancer incidence, UK 2007 [2]
Rate* ratio of male to female pancreatic cancer mortality, UK 2007:
* European age-standardised rates per 100,000 population.
Age is the most significant risk factor for pancreatic cancer. The risk is low up until the age of 50 when it increases sharply. The median age of diagnosis is 72 [4]
The % risk of developing pancreatic cancer at different ages
Pancreatic cancer can often be missed in younger patients
Although the peak incidence is in the 65-75 year age group, pancreatic cancer can occur from the age of 20 with rates rising significantly from 45 years.[3]
Cigarette smoking is the only confirmed environmental cause of pancreatic cancer. It is currently estimated that smoking contributes to 25% of all cases of pancreatic cancer.
Among the 250 known harmful chemicals in tobacco smoke, at least 69 can cause cancer by damaging the DNA and by changing important genes This can cause cells to multiply and grow out of control – causing cancerous tumours – see our What is Cancer? section for more information.
Anderson et al., (2006) [4] looked at the risk of contracting pancreatic cancer in smokers versus never smokers in 82 independent studies from 1950 – 2007 . They found that smokers have an increased risk of 74% of developing pancreatic cancer compared to those who have never smoked.
Stopping smoking will help:
Quitting smoking reduces the risk of developing and dying from cancer. However, it takes a number of years after quitting for the risk of cancer to start to decline. This benefit increases the longer a person remains smoke free
The risk for former smokers is still high for a minimum of 10 years after stopping and for those who have stopped the longest (> 10 years) the risk of pancreatic cancer is reduced by approx. 50% compared to the risk in current smokers
If you need help to stop smoking, please visit NHS Smoke Free, the NHS Stop Smoking Service
In 2007, the World Cancer Research Fund [5] concluded, “the evidence that greater body fatness is a cause of pancreatic cancer is convincing”
The fat tissues in overweight people produce more hormones and growth factors than those in people of a healthy weight. High levels of some of these hormones, including insulin which is produced in the pancreas, can increase the risk of certain cancers including pancreatic cancer
The Million Women Study [6] found women with a BMI >27.5 had a 20-37% increased risk of pancreatic cancer (compared to those with healthy BMI) also [7]
Lou et al., (2008) [8] found that obese women who carry most of their excess weight around the waist rather than hips are “70% more likely to develop pancreatic cancer.”
The latest meta-analysis review on the evidence linking obesity and pancreatic cancer risk conducted by researchers at Imperial College, London and the University of Leeds has confirmed the hypothesis that “increased BMI and abdominal obesity are associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk [12]
Aune et al., (2011) found that there was an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in both men and women who have a BMI of 25 but that that risk was more pronounced in those with a BMI of 35 or greater. They confirmed the conclusion of Lou et al., and others that avoiding carrying your weight around your middle (have a hight waist-to-hip ratio) could help prevent pancreatic cancer
Want to know if you have a healthy BMI? Click the link for the NHS BMI Healthy Weight Calculator
Approx. 1% of diabetics over the age of 50 will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of “first meeting the criteriafor diabetes” Chari et al., (2008) [9]
There are currently investigations into the merits of using diabetes as a potential biomarker for pancreatic cancer (Pannala et al., 2008) [10] and it has been found that pancreatic cancer induced hyperglycemia (high blood glucose levels) can occur up to 24 months prior to the diagnosis for pancreatic cancer (Chari et al., 2008) [11]
Sometimes pancreatic cancer is found to run in a family due to faulty genes. It is thought that hereditary pancreatic cancer makes up approx. 5-10% of all cases. There is currently no genetic test available specifically for pancreatic cancer. For more information, follow this link to our section on hereditary pancreatic cancer.
[1]Statistical Information Team, Cancer Research UK, Feb 2009.
[2] NCIN (2008) The Excess Burden of Cancer in Men in the UK, available online: www.ncin.org.uk/docs/090615 NCIN Male_Cancer Report.pdf (accessed 24.02.2010)
[3] CRUK http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/types/pancreas/incidence/index.htm#age (accessed online, 24.02.2010)
[4] Anderson, K et al., (2006) Pancreatic Cancer. In Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention. Schottenfeld, D Fraumeni, JF Jr., (eds.). New York: Oxford University Press pp 721-762. In Pancreatic Cancer (2010) Neoptolemous, J et al., (eds.) New York: Springer pp 5-19.
[5] WCRF/AICR (World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research) (2007) Food, nutrition, physical activity and the prevention of cancer: a global perspective.
[6] Reeves G, Pirie K, Beral V, Green J, Spencer E, Bull D, for the Million Women Study collaborators (2007) Cancer incidence and mortality in relation to Body Mass Index in the Million Women Study: cohort study. British Medical Journal. Dec 1; 335 (7630): 1134
[7] Donghui Li et al., (2009) Body Mass Index and Risk Age of Onset and Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Cancer JAMA 301(24): 2553-2562
[8] J. Lou et al., (2008) Obesity and the risk of pancreatic cancer among post-menopausal women: the Women’s Health Initiative (United States) British Journal of Cancer 99: 527-531
[9] Chari et al., (2005) Probability of pancreatic cancer following diabetes: a population based study. Gastroenterology 129: 504-511
[10] Pannala, R et al., (2008) Prevalence and clinical profile of pancreatic cancer –associated diabetes mellitus. Gastroenterology 134 (4): 981-987
[11] Chari et al., (2008) Pancreatic cancer-associated diabetes mellitus. Gastroenterology 134 (1): 95-101 pp 271-274.
[12] Aune et al., (2011) Body mass index, abdominal fatness and pancreatic cancer risk: a systematic review and non-linear dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies
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